Publications

Forest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable.

It is well-known that the mycorrhizal type of plants correlates with different modes of nutrient cycling and availability. However, the differences in drought tolerance between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) plants remains poorly characterized.We synthesized a global dataset of four hydraulic traits associated with drought tolerance of 1457 woody species (1139 AM and 318 EcM species) at 308 field sites. We compared these traits between AM and EcM species, with evolutionary history (i.e. angiosperms vs gymnosperms), water availability (i.e. aridity index) and biomes considered as additional factors.Overall, we found that evolutionary history and biogeography influenced differences in hydraulic traits between mycorrhizal types. Specifically, we found that (1) AM angiosperms are less drought-tolerant than EcM angiosperms in wet regions or biomes, but AM gymnosperms are more drought-tolerant than EcM gymnosperms in dry regions or biomes, and (2) in both angiosperms and gymnosperms, variation in hydraulic traits as well as their sensitivity to water availability were higher in AM species than in EcM species.Our results suggest that global shifts in water availability (especially drought) may alter the biogeographic distribution and abundance of AM and EcM plants, with consequences for ecosystem element cycling and ultimately, the land carbon sink.

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition has increased N availability in forests close to human settlements, potentially causing N-limited forests to become N saturated, and influencing forest productivity and future climate. However, the global patterns of N-saturated forests have remained unclear, hindering effective N management. In N-saturated forests, organisms use N extravagantly, and a high proportion of the supplied N is lost in forms such as N₂O emissions. Here, we used experimental N addition data to derive the sensitivity of soil N₂O emissions to N deposition (s_N). Using field observations of forest N status, the global patterns of N-saturated forests indicated by s_N show an accuracy of 81%. Globally, 47.5% of forests are N saturated, especially tropical and temperate forests affected by human activity. The spatially explicit map of forest N status is useful for predicting forest greenhouse gas emissions and productivity and for implementing region-specific environmental management practices.

Ecosystem restoration is a critical nature-based solution to mitigate climate change. However, the carbon sequestration potential of restoration, defined as the maximum achievable carbon storage, has likely been overestimated because previous studies have not adequately accounted for the competition between ecosystem water demands for maximizing carbon sequestration and human water needs. Here we used a comprehensive process-based model combined with extensive land-use data and evaporation recycling accounting for land–atmosphere feedback to estimate the water requirements associated with ecosystem restoration. We found that achieving the carbon sequestration potential of restoration would significantly reduce global water availability per capita by 26%, posing considerable risks to water security in water-stressed and highly populated regions. If human water use is safeguarded, the achievable carbon sequestration potential would be reduced by a third (from 396 PgC to 270 PgC). Brazil, the United States and Russia have the largest achievable potentials. Future projections accounting for changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂, land use and human population under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585 suggest an increase in this achievable potential to 274–302 PgC by the end of the century, with China expected to have the largest potential. Our findings provide a nuanced understanding of the trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration goals and water security, offering an empirical framework to guide the sustainable implementation of ecosystem restoration strategies.

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for China’s carbon neutrality goals, yet uncertainties exist due to future climate change. We compiled a comprehensive SOC database for China circa 2010 and utilized digital soil mapping methods to estimate SOC. Using a climate data-driven model, we projected SOC changes from 2021 to 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The top 100 cm SOC is predicted to store 81.99 ± 1.90 to 88.92 ± 1.24 Pg C, with 37.8% to 41.7% in the top 20 cm. Under the SSP119 scenario, the top 100 cm SOC would increase by 11.5 ± 5.3 Tg C year⁻¹, contributing to 2.7% ± 1.6% of the carbon sink in China’s terrestrial ecosystems over the same period. However, the top 100 cm SOC would transition into a carbon source under SSP245 and SSP585, despite geographical and provincial differences. Maps reveal SOC loss hotspots under SSP245 and SSP585, indicating priority regions for soil carbon conservation efforts.

Terrestrial ecosystems are subjected to multiple global changes simultaneously. Yet, how an increasing number of global changes impact the resistance of ecosystems to global change remains virtually unknown. Here we present a global synthesis including 14,000 observations from seven ecosystem services (functions and biodiversity), as well as data from a 15-year field experiment. We found that the resistance of multiple ecosystem services to global change declines with an increasing number of global change factors, particularly after long-term exposure to these factors. Biodiversity had a higher resistance to multiple global changes compared with ecosystem functions. Our work suggests that we need to consider the combined effects of multiple global changes on the magnitude and resistance of ecosystem services worldwide, as ecosystem responses will be enhanced by the number of environmental stressors and time of exposure.

Global soil nitrogen (N) cycling remains poorly understood due to its complex driving mechanisms. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of global soil δ¹⁵N, a stable isotopic signature indicative of the N input–output balance, using a machine-learning approach on 10,676 observations from 2670 sites. Our findings reveal prevalent joint effects of climatic conditions, plant N-use strategies, soil properties, and other natural and anthropogenic forcings on global soil δ¹⁵N. The joint effects of multiple drivers govern the latitudinal distribution of soil δ¹⁵N, with more rapid N cycling at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. In contrast to previous climate-focused models, our data-driven model more accurately simulates spatial changes in global soil δ¹⁵N, highlighting the need to consider the joint effects of multiple drivers to estimate the Earth's N budget. These insights contribute to the reconciliation of discordances among empirical, theoretical, and modeling studies on soil N cycling, as well as sustainable N management.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) to climate change, which harness natural ecosystems to achieve diverse environmental objectives, are becoming increasingly central to climate action plans due in large part to their multifaceted benefits and potential for immediate scalability. This white paper explores the classes of ecosystem intervention that present these salient opportunities to mitigate climate change. Interventions that enhance and preserve ecosystems provide opportunities to protect and strengthen the terrestrial carbon sink, while also reversing the degradation and damage caused by centuries of human development. The paper explains the strategic vision for NBS engagement, which is developing through industry-academic partnership at the MIT Climate & Sustainability Consortium (MCSC). The white paper explores different yet complementary sides of the multifaceted measurement and NBS conversations.

Grazing has been associated with contrasting effects on soil carbon stocks at local scales, but accurate global assessments of its net impact are lacking. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of 1,473 soil carbon observations from grazing studies to quantify global changes in soil carbon stocks due to grazing practices. Our analysis shows that grazing has reduced soil carbon stocks at 1-m depth by 46 ± 13 PgC over the past 60 years. The interplay between grazing intensity and environmental factors explains global variations in soil carbon changes. Maps of optimal grazing intensity indicate that implementing grazing management on 21 million km² of grazing lands, mainly through decreasing grazing intensity on 75% of lands and increasing it on the rest could result in a potential uptake of 63 ± 18 PgC in vegetation and soils. These results highlight the potential of employing grazing as a climate mitigation strategy.

Urban greenspaces continue to grow with global urbanization. The global distribution and stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in urban greenspaces remain largely undescribed and missing in global carbon (C) budgets. Here, we synthesize data of 420 observations from 257 cities in 52 countries to evaluate the global pattern of surface SOC density (0–20 cm depth) in urban greenspaces. Surface SOC density in urban greenspaces increases significantly at higher latitudes and decreases significantly with higher mean annual temperature, stronger temperature and precipitation seasonality, as well as lower urban greenness index. By mapping surface SOC density using a random forest model, we estimate an average SOC density of 55.2 (51.9–58.6) Mg C ha⁻¹ and a SOC stock of 1.46 (1.37–1.54) Pg C in global urban greenspaces. Our findings present a comprehensive assessment of SOC in global urban greenspaces and provide a baseline for future urban soil C assessment under continuing urbanization.

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loading alters soil ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) abundances, likely leading to substantial changes in soil nitrification. However, the factors and mechanisms determining the responses of soil AOA:AOB and nitrification to N loading are still unclear, making it difficult to predict future changes in soil nitrification. Herein, we synthesize 68 field studies around the world to evaluate the impacts of N loading on soil ammonia oxidizers and nitrification. Across a wide range of biotic and abiotic factors, climate is the most important driver of the responses of AOA:AOB to N loading. Climate does not directly affect the N-stimulation of nitrification, but does so via climate-related shifts in AOA:AOB. Specifically, climate modulates the responses of AOA:AOB to N loading by affecting soil pH, N-availability and moisture. AOB play a dominant role in affecting nitrification in dry climates, while the impacts from AOA can exceed AOB in humid climates. Together, these results suggest that climate-related shifts in soil ammonia-oxidizing community maintain the N-stimulation of nitrification, highlighting the importance of microbial community composition in mediating the responses of the soil N cycle to N loading.

Nutrients are essential regulators of the structure and function of natural ecosystems and play a key role in constraining future terrestrial productivity and carbon sequestration in response to rising CO₂ concentrations and climate change. Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) widely limit plant growth in global terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore understanding spatial patterns and future trends of N and P limitation can shed light on the future dynamics of forests and other terrestrial biomes. Based on current literature, here we (1) review the concept and mechanisms of nutrient limitation and how vascular plants adapt to nutrient limitation, (2) summarize the direct and indirect approaches to diagnose nutrient limitation, (3) synthesize the current understanding of global patterns of N and P limitation, and (4) discuss the future trends in N and P limitation in boreal, temperate, and tropical forests.

Theory predicts that rising CO₂ increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO₂ fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO₂ fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO₂ on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO₂ fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO₂ and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

Crossing certain aridity thresholds in global drylands can lead to abrupt decays of ecosystem attributes such as plant productivity, potentially causing land degradation and desertification. It is largely unknown, however, whether these thresholds can be altered by other key global change drivers known to affect the water-use efficiency and productivity of vegetation, such as elevated CO₂ and nitrogen (N). Using >5000 empirical measurements of plant biomass, we showed that crossing an aridity (1–precipitation/potential evapotranspiration) threshold of ∼0.50, which marks the transition from dry sub-humid to semi-arid climates, led to abrupt declines in aboveground biomass (AGB) and progressive increases in root:shoot ratios, thus importantly affecting carbon stocks and their distribution. N addition significantly increased AGB and delayed the emergence of its aridity threshold from 0.49 to 0.55 (P< 0.05). By coupling remote sensing estimates of leaf area index with simulations from multiple models, we found that CO₂ enrichment did not alter the observed aridity threshold. By 2100, and under the RCP 8.5 scenario, we forecast a 0.3% net increase in the global land area exceeding the aridity threshold detected under a scenario that includes N deposition, in comparison to a 2.9% net increase if the N effect is not considered. Our study thus indicates that N addition could mitigate to a great extent the negative impact of increasing aridity on plant biomass in drylands. These findings are critical for improving forecasts of abrupt vegetation changes in response to ongoing global environmental change.

The determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially in global drylands. Here we combined datasets and field sampling of fire-manipulation experiments to evaluate where and why fire changes SOC and compared our statistical model to simulations from ecosystem models. Drier ecosystems experienced larger relative changes in SOC than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses from plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high fire-driven declines in tree biomass inputs in dry ecosystems. Many ecosystem models underestimated the SOC changes in drier ecosystems. Upscaling our statistical model predicted that soils in savannah–grassland regions may have gained 0.64 PgC due to net-declines in burned area over the past approximately two decades. Consequently, ongoing declines in fire frequencies have probably created an extensive carbon sink in the soils of global drylands that may have been underestimated by ecosystem models.

Climate change has been partially mitigated by an increasing net land carbon sink in the terrestrial biosphere; understanding the processes that drive this sink is thus essential for protecting, managing and projecting this important ecosystem service. In this Review, we examine evidence for an enhanced land carbon sink and attribute the observed response to drivers and processes. This sink has doubled from 1.2 ± 0.5 PgC yr⁻¹ in the 1960s to 3.1 ± 0.6 PgC yr⁻¹ in the 2010s. This trend results largely from carbon dioxide fertilization increasing photosynthesis (driving an increase in the annual land carbon sink of >2 PgC globally since 1900), mainly in tropical forest regions, and elevated temperatures reducing cold limitation, mainly at higher latitudes. Continued long-term land carbon sequestration is possible through the end of this century under multiple emissions scenarios, especially if nature-based climate solutions and appropriate ecosystem management are used. A new generation of globally distributed field experiments is needed to improve understanding of future carbon sink potential by measuring belowground carbon release, the response to carbon dioxide enrichment, and long-term shifts in carbon allocation and turnover.

The existence of a large-biomass carbon (C) sink in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (NHee) is well-established, but the relative contribution of different potential drivers remains highly uncertain. Here we isolated the historical role of carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization by integrating estimates from 24 CO₂-enrichment experiments, an ensemble of 10 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and two observation-based biomass datasets. Application of the emergent constraint technique revealed that DGVMs underestimated the historical response of plant biomass to increasing [CO₂] in forests but overestimated the response in grasslands since the 1850s. Combining the constrained (0.86 ± 0.28 kg C m⁻² [100 ppm]⁻¹) with observed forest biomass changes derived from inventories and satellites, we identified that CO₂ fertilization alone accounted for more than half (54 ± 18% and 64 ± 21%, respectively) of the increase in biomass C storage since the 1990s. Our results indicate that CO₂ fertilization dominated the forest biomass C sink over the past decades, and provide an essential step toward better understanding the key role of forests in land-based policies for mitigating climate change.

Microbial communities in soils are generally considered to be limited by carbon (C), which could be a crucial control for basic soil functions and responses of microbial heterotrophic metabolism to climate change. However, global soil microbial C limitation (MCL) has rarely been estimated and is poorly understood. Here, we predicted MCL, defined as limited availability of substrate C relative to nitrogen and/or phosphorus to meet microbial metabolic requirements, based on the thresholds of extracellular enzyme activity across 847 sites (2476 observations) representing global natural ecosystems. Results showed that only about 22% of global sites in terrestrial surface soils show relative C limitation in microbial community. This finding challenges the conventional hypothesis of ubiquitous C limitation for soil microbial metabolism. The limited geographic extent of C limitation in our study was mainly attributed to plant litter, rather than soil organic matter that has been processed by microbes, serving as the dominant C source for microbial acquisition. We also identified a significant latitudinal pattern of predicted MCL with larger C limitation at mid- to high latitudes, whereas this limitation was generally absent in the tropics. Moreover, MCL significantly constrained the rates of soil heterotrophic respiration, suggesting a potentially larger relative increase in respiration at mid- to high latitudes than low latitudes, if climate change increases primary productivity that alleviates MCL at higher latitudes. Our study provides the first global estimates of MCL, advancing our understanding of terrestrial C cycling and microbial metabolic feedback under global climate change.

There is increasing evidence to suggest that soil nutrient availability can limit the carbon sink capacity of forests, a particularly relevant issue considering today's changing climate. This question is especially important in the tropics, where most part of the Earth's plant biomass is stored. To assess whether tropical forest growth is limited by soil nutrients and to explore N and P limitations, we analyzed stem growth and foliar elemental composition of the five stem widest trees per plot at two sites in French Guiana after 3 years of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and N + P addition. We also compared the results between potential N-fixer and non-N-fixer species. We found a positive effect of N fertilization on stem growth and foliar N, as well as a positive effect of P fertilization on stem growth, foliar N, and foliar P. Potential N-fixing species had greater stem growth, greater foliar N, and greater foliar P concentrations than non-N-fixers. In terms of growth, there was a negative interaction between N-fixer status, N + P, and P fertilization, but no interaction with N fertilization. Because N-fixing plants do not show to be completely N saturated, we do not anticipate N providing from N-fixing plants would supply non-N-fixers. Although the soil-age hypothesis only anticipates P limitation in highly weathered systems, our results for stem growth and foliar elemental composition indicate the existence of considerable N and P co-limitation, which is alleviated in N-fixing plants. The evidence suggests that certain mechanisms invest in N to obtain the scarce P through soil phosphatases, which potentially contributes to the N limitation detected by this study.

Despite worldwide prevalence, post-agricultural landscapes remain one of the least constrained human-induced land carbon sinks. To appraise their role in rebuilding the planet’s natural carbon stocks through ecosystem restoration, we need to better understand their spatial and temporal legacies.

Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO₂, temperature, and nutrient and water availability. Syntheses of results across experiments provide a more general sense of ecosystem responses to global change, and help to discern the influence of background conditions such as climate and vegetation type in determining global change responses. Several independent syntheses of published data have yielded distinct databases for specific objectives. Such parallel, uncoordinated initiatives carry the risk of producing redundant data collection efforts and have led to contrasting outcomes without clarifying the underlying reason for divergence. These problems could be avoided by creating a publicly available, updatable, curated database. Here, we report on a global effort to collect and curate 57,089 treatment responses across 3644 manipulation experiments at 1145 sites, simulating elevated CO₂, warming, nutrient addition, and precipitation changes. In the resulting Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative (MESI) database, effects of experimental global change drivers on carbon and nutrient cycles are included, as well as ancillary data such as background climate, vegetation type, treatment magnitude, duration, and, unique to our database, measured soil properties. Our analysis of the database indicates that most experiments are short term (one or few growing seasons), conducted in the USA, Europe, or China, and that the most abundantly reported variable is aboveground biomass. We provide the most comprehensive multifactor global change database to date, enabling the research community to tackle open research questions, vital to global policymaking. The MESI database, freely accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7153253, opens new avenues for model evaluation and synthesis-based understanding of how global change affects terrestrial biomes. We welcome contributions to the database on GitHub.

Rapid urbanization has occurred globally and resulted in increasing CO₂ emissions from urban areas. Compared to natural forests, urban forests are subject to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in view of strong urban-periurban-rural gradients of CO₂ emissions. However, relevant insights in the CO₂-associated urban imprints on the physiology and growth of regional forests remain lacking. By sampling foliage and tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) in the Beijing metropolitan region, China, we explored whether and how urban CO₂ emissions affect stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) and tree growth spatially and/or temporally. The results indicate a significant decrease in foliar δ¹³C values towards the urban center and this pattern was mainly explained by the urban-periurban-rural gradients of CO₂ emissions as surrogated by trunk road density. Tree-ring δ¹³C values showed a significant decrease over last four decades and this trend was mainly explained by rising levels of CO₂ and secondarily mediated by the variations of aridity index during growing season. Moreover, annual basal area increment of Chinese pine was significantly accelerated during last two decades, being mainly driven by increasing CO₂ emissions and secondarily mediated by climate variations. These findings reveal significant CO₂-associated imprints of urbanization on plant growth and provide empirical evidences of significant CO₂-induced alteration of carbon cycles in urban forests.

Plants may slow global warming through enhanced growth, because increased levels of photosynthesis stimulate the land carbon (C) sink. However, how climate warming affects plant C storage globally and key drivers determining the response of plant C storage to climate warming remains unclear, causing uncertainty in climate projections. We performed a comprehensive meta-analysis, compiling 393 observations from 99 warming studies to examine the global patterns of plant C storage responses to climate warming and explore the key drivers. Warming significantly increased total biomass (+8.4 %), aboveground biomass (+12.6 %) and belowground biomass (+10.1 %). The effect of experimental warming on plant biomass was best explained by the availability of soil nitrogen (N) and water. Across the entire dataset, warming-induced changes in total, aboveground and belowground biomass all positively correlated with soil C:N ratio, an indicator of soil N availability. In addition, warming stimulated plant biomass more strongly in humid than in dry ecosystems, and warming tended to decrease root:shoot ratios at high soil C:N ratios. Together, these results suggest dual controls of warming effects on plant C storage; warming increases plant growth in ecosystems where N is limiting plant growth, but it reduces plant growth where water availability is limiting plant growth.

The CO₂ fertilization effect in tropical forests is a key factor for the global land carbon sink. We show that the normalized CO₂ effect on tropical vegetation carbon was c. 70% lower in seedling CO₂ experiments without nutrient fertilizers and c. 50% and 70% lower in models that consider nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, based on two model ensembles. The inadequate representation or lack of nutrient cycles in Earth System models likely leads to overestimating future tropical carbon gains.

Background: Research on the changes of organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN) contents in soil aggregates is crucial for better evaluating C and N dynamics in paddy soil.

Aims: We investigated the effects of wheat straw incorporation on soil aggregate distributions and stability, the contents of OC and TN in bulk soil, and aggregates as well as their relationships.

Methods: A rice paddy field experiment in China with four treatments: (1) unfertilized control (CK), (2) mineral NPK fertilizer (NPK), (3) NPK plus medium-rate wheat straw incorporation (MSNPK), and (4) NPK plus high-rate wheat straw incorporation (HSNPK). Soil samples were collected from four soil layers (0–5, 5–10, 10–20, and 20–30 cm, respectively) after the rice harvest, and the samples were separated into four classes of aggregates with different sizes (>5, 5–2, 2–0.25, and <0.25 mm).

Results: The >5 mm fraction dominated aggregate size distribution, but the 2–0.25 mm fraction had the highest OC and TN contents throughout soil profile among treatments. The proportions of >5 and 5–2 mm aggregates, mean weight diameter (MWD), geometric mean diameter (GMD), the proportion of aggregates greater than 0.25 mm (R_0.25), bulk soil organic carbon (SOC) and TN contents, and OC and TN contents in aggregates were highest in HSNPK and lowest in CK at either depth. Both bulk SOC and TN contents positively correlated with R_0.25, MWD, GMD, and OC and TN contents in aggregates, and positively and negatively correlated with all aggregates (p < 0.05), except between bulk TN and the proportion of 5–2 mm aggregates. The OC content in the 5–2 mm aggregates (increase in MSE = 23.87%) and the TN content in the 2–0.25 mm aggregates (increase in MSE = 13.89%) were more important than other driving factors for bulk SOC and TN, respectively.

Conclusion: In conclusion, these results confirmed that the application of HSNPK increased bulk SOC and TN contents, soil aggregates distributions (i.e. >5 mm and 5–2 mm fractions) and stability, and the OC and TN contents in all aggregates at both depths in rice paddy fields of China, which might improve soil C and N sinks in agricultural ecosystems.

A poor understanding of the fraction of global plant biomass occurring belowground as roots limits our understanding of present and future ecosystem function and carbon pools. Here we create a database of root-mass fractions (RMFs), an index of plant below- versus aboveground biomass distributions, and generate quantitative, spatially explicit global maps of RMFs in trees, shrubs and grasses. Our analyses reveal large gradients in RMFs both across and within vegetation types that can be attributed to resource availability. High RMFs occur in cold and dry ecosystems, while low RMFs dominate in warm and wet regions. Across all vegetation types, the directional effect of temperature on RMFs depends on water availability, suggesting feedbacks between heat, water and nutrient supply. By integrating our RMF maps with existing aboveground plant biomass information, we estimate that in forests, shrublands and grasslands, respectively, 22%, 47% and 67% of plant biomass exists belowground, with a total global belowground fraction of 24% (20–28%), that is, 113 (90–135) Gt carbon. By documenting the environmental correlates of root biomass allocation, our results can inform model projections of global vegetation dynamics under current and future climate scenarios.

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes. Variability in the sensitivity of tree communities to multi-decadal changes in fire regimes is critical to anticipating shifts in ecosystem structure and function, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we address the overall effects of fire on tree communities and the factors controlling their sensitivity in 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies in savanna and forest ecosystems across tropical and temperate regions. Fire had a strong overall effect on tree communities, with an average fire frequency (one fire every three years) reducing stem density by 48% and basal area by 53% after 50 years, relative to unburned plots. The largest changes occurred in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons or strong dry seasons, pointing to fire characteristics and species composition as important. Analyses of functional traits highlighted the impact of fire-driven changes in soil nutrients because frequent burning favoured trees with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content, and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses. Taken together, the response of trees to altered fire frequencies depends both on climatic and vegetation determinants of fire behaviour and tree growth, and the coupling between fire-driven nutrient losses and plant traits.

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by human activities each year¹, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO₂ (refs. ^2,3). Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) experiments^4,5,6, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline⁷. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections^8,9. Here we synthesized data from 108 eCO₂ experiments and found that the effect of eCO₂ on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO₂, SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO₂ in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

Secondary succession on abandoned agricultural lands can produce climate change mitigation co-benefits, such as soil carbon sequestration. However, the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in Mediterranean regions has been difficult to predict and is subject to multiple environmental and land management factors. Gains, losses, and no significant changes have all been reported. Here we compile chronosequence data (n = 113) from published studies and new field sites to assess the response of SOC to agricultural land abandonment in peninsular Spain. We found an overall SOC accumulation rate of +2.3% yr⁻¹ post-abandonment. SOC dynamics are highly variable and context-dependent. Minimal change occurs on abandoned cereal croplands compared to abandoned woody croplands (+4% yr⁻¹). Accumulation is most prevalent within a Goldilocks climatic window of ~13–17 °C and ~450–900 mm precipitation, promoting >100% gains after three decades. Our secondary forest field sites accrued 40.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ (+172%) following abandonment and displayed greater SOC and N depth heterogeneity than natural forests demonstrating the long-lasting impact of agriculture. Although changes in regional climate and crop types abandoned will impact future carbon sequestration, abandonment remains a low-cost, long-term natural climate solution best incorporated in tandem with other multipurpose sustainable land management strategies.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂] (iCO₂) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂, albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Background and aims: Through agriculture and industry, humans are increasing the deposition and availability of nitrogen (N) in ecosystems worldwide. Carbon (C) isotope tracers provide useful insights into soil C dynamics, as they allow to study soil C pools of different ages. We evaluated to what extent N enrichment affects soil C dynamics in experiments that applied C isotope tracers.
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Methods: Using meta-analysis, we synthesized data from 35 published papers. We made a distinction between “new C” and “old C” stocks, i.e., soil C derived from plant C input since the start of the isotopic enrichment, or unlabeled, pre-existing soil C.

Results: Averaged across studies, N addition increased new soil C stocks (+30.3%), total soil C stocks (+6.1%) and soil C input proxies (+30.7%). Although N addition had no overall, average, effect on old soil C stocks and old soil C respiration, old soil C stocks increased with the amount of N added and respiration of old soil C declined. Nitrogen-induced effects on new soil C and soil C input both decreased with the amount of extraneous N added in control treatments.

Conclusion: Although our findings require additional confirmation from long-term field experiments, our analysis provides isotopic evidence that N addition stimulates soil C storage both by increasing soil C input and (at high N rates) by decreasing decomposition of old soil C. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the widely reported saturating response of plant growth to N enrichment also applies to new soil C storage.

Increased human-derived nitrogen (N) deposition to terrestrial ecosystems has resulted in widespread phosphorus (P) limitation of net primary productivity. However, it remains unclear if and how N-induced P limitation varies over time. Soil extracellular phosphatases catalyze the hydrolysis of P from soil organic matter, an important adaptive mechanism for ecosystems to cope with N-induced P limitation. Here we show, using a meta-analysis of 140 studies and 668 observations worldwide, that N stimulation of soil phosphatase activity diminishes over time. Whereas short-term N loading (≤5 years) significantly increased soil phosphatase activity by 28%, long-term N loading had no significant effect. Nitrogen loading did not affect soil available P and total P content in either short- or long-term studies. Together, these results suggest that N-induced P limitation in ecosystems is alleviated in the long-term through the initial stimulation of soil phosphatase activity, thereby securing P supply to support plant growth. Our results suggest that increases in terrestrial carbon uptake due to ongoing anthropogenic N loading may be greater than previously thought.

The widespread historical and ongoing abandonment of agricultural lands worldwide presents important opportunities for promoting climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. The default management outcome of abandonment is natural regeneration through ecological succession. However, several different management strategies and new land uses for abandoned agricultural lands have been recommended by the scientific community in recent years. This paper reviews the foremost proposed strategies and compares their soil carbon sequestration potentials. Six major categories have been proposed globally. Each proposal has positive and negative outcomes depending on site-specific factors and management objectives. Accordingly, no single strategy is ideal in all scenarios and a combination of strategies addresses multiple rural development goals concurrently. A combination of passive and active management techniques is the most effective approach for maximizing soil carbon sequestration over large geographic scales, while other strategies can be designed to also promote low-carbon land use practices and fossil fuel substitution. The implications of each proposal highlighted here demonstrates the positive role that abandoned agricultural lands can serve in climate change mitigation efforts, supporting policymakers tasked with planning the future of regions undergoing abandonment.

Plants and vegetation play a critical—but largely unpredictable—role in global environmental changes due to the multitude of contributing processes at widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective, we explore approaches to master this complexity and improve our ability to predict vegetation dynamics by explicitly taking account of principles that constrain plant and ecosystem behaviour: natural selection, self-organization and entropy maximization. These ideas are increasingly being used in vegetation models, but we argue that their full potential has yet to be realized. We demonstrate the power of natural selection-based optimality principles to predict photosynthetic and carbon allocation responses to multiple environmental drivers, as well as how individual plasticity leads to the predictable self-organization of forest canopies. We show how models of natural selection acting on a few key traits can generate realistic plant communities and how entropy maximization can identify the most probable outcomes of community dynamics in space- and time-varying environments. Finally, we present a roadmap indicating how these principles could be combined in a new generation of models with stronger theoretical foundations and an improved capacity to predict complex vegetation responses to environmental change.

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation constrains the magnitude of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to elevated carbon dioxide and climate change. However, global maps of nutrient limitation are still lacking. Here we examined global N and P limitation using the ratio of site-averaged leaf N and P resorption efficiencies of the dominant species across 171 sites. We evaluated our predictions using a global database of N- and P-limitation experiments based on nutrient additions at 106 and 53 sites, respectively. Globally, we found a shift from relative P to N limitation for both higher latitudes and precipitation seasonality and lower mean annual temperature, temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation and soil clay fraction. Excluding cropland, urban and glacial areas, we estimate that 18% of the natural terrestrial land area is significantly limited by N, whereas 43% is relatively P limited. The remaining 39% of the natural terrestrial land area could be co-limited by N and P or weakly limited by either nutrient alone. This work provides both a new framework for testing nutrient limitation and a benchmark of N and P limitation for models to constrain predictions of the terrestrial carbon sink.

Nutrient availability influences virtually every aspect of an ecosystem, and is a critical modifier of ecosystem responses to global change. Although this crucial role of nutrient availability in regulating ecosystem structure and functioning has been widely acknowledged, nutrients are still often neglected in observational and experimental synthesis studies due to difficulties in comparing the nutrient status across sites. In the current study, we explain different nutrient-related concepts and discuss the potential of soil-, plant- and remote sensing-based metrics to compare the nutrient status across space. Based on our review and additional analyses on a dataset of European, managed temperate and boreal forests (ICP [International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests] Forests dataset), we conclude that the use of plant- and remote sensing-based metrics that rely on tissue stoichiometry is limited due to their strong dependence on species identity. The potential use of other plant-based metrics such as Ellenberg indicator values and plant-functional traits is also discussed. We conclude from our analyses and review that soil-based metrics have the highest potential for successful intersite comparison of the nutrient status. As an example, we used and adjusted a soil-based metric, previously developed for conifer forests across Sweden, against the same ICP Forests data. We suggest that this adjusted and further adaptable metric, which included the organic carbon concentration in the upper 20 cm of the soil (including the organic fermentation-humus [FH] layer), the C:N ratio and pH_CaCl2 of the FH layer, can be used as a complementary tool along with other indicators of nutrient availability, to compare the background nutrient status across temperate and boreal forests dominated by spruce, pine or beech. Future collection and provision of harmonized soil data from observational and experimental sites is crucial for further testing and adjusting the metric.

Vegetation impacts on ecosystem functioning are mediated by mycorrhizas, plant–fungal associations formed by most plant species. Ecosystems dominated by distinct mycorrhizal types differ strongly in their biogeochemistry. Quantitative analyses of mycorrhizal impacts on ecosystem functioning are hindered by the scarcity of information on mycorrhizal distributions. Here we present global, high-resolution maps of vegetation biomass distribution by dominant mycorrhizal associations. Arbuscular, ectomycorrhizal, and ericoid mycorrhizal vegetation store, respectively, 241 ± 15, 100 ± 17, and 7 ± 1.8 GT carbon in aboveground biomass, whereas non-mycorrhizal vegetation stores 29 ± 5.5 GT carbon. Soil carbon stocks in both topsoil and subsoil are positively related to the community-level biomass fraction of ectomycorrhizal plants, though the strength of this relationship varies across biomes. We show that human-induced transformations of Earth’s ecosystems have reduced ectomycorrhizal vegetation, with potential ramifications to terrestrial carbon stocks. Our work provides a benchmark for spatially explicit and globally quantitative assessments of mycorrhizal impacts on ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling.

Elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) experiments provide critical information to quantify the effects of rising CO₂ on vegetation^1,2,3,4,5,6. Many eCO₂ experiments suggest that nutrient limitations modulate the local magnitude of the eCO₂ effect on plant biomass^1,3,5, but the global extent of these limitations has not been empirically quantified, complicating projections of the capacity of plants to take up CO₂^7,8. Here, we present a data-driven global quantification of the eCO₂ effect on biomass based on 138 eCO₂ experiments. The strength of CO₂ fertilization is primarily driven by nitrogen (N) in ~65% of global vegetation and by phosphorus (P) in ~25% of global vegetation, with N- or P-limitation modulated by mycorrhizal association. Our approach suggests that CO₂ levels expected by 2100 can potentially enhance plant biomass by 12 ± 3% above current values, equivalent to 59 ± 13 PgC. The future effect of eCO₂ we derive from experiments is geographically consistent with past changes in greenness⁹, but is considerably lower than the past effect derived from models¹⁰. If borne out, our results suggest that the stimulatory effect of CO₂ on carbon storage could slow considerably this century. Our research provides an empirical estimate of the biomass sensitivity to eCO₂ that may help to constrain climate projections.

Land ecosystems sequester on average about a quarter of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. It has been proposed that nitrogen (N) availability will exert an increasingly limiting effect on plants’ ability to store additional carbon (C) under rising CO₂, but these mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we review findings from elevated CO₂ experiments using a plant economics framework, highlighting how ecosystem responses to elevated CO₂ may depend on the costs and benefits of plant interactions with mycorrhizal fungi and symbiotic N-fixing microbes. We found that N-acquisition efficiency is positively correlated with leaf-level photosynthetic capacity and plant growth, and negatively with soil C storage. Plants that associate with ectomycorrhizal fungi and N-fixers may acquire N at a lower cost than plants associated with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. However, the additional growth in ectomycorrhizal plants is partly offset by decreases in soil C pools via priming. Collectively, our results indicate that predictive models aimed at quantifying C cycle feedbacks to global change may be improved by treating N as a resource that can be acquired by plants in exchange for energy, with different costs depending on plant interactions with microbial symbionts.

Rising levels of atmospheric CO₂ frequently stimulate plant inputs to soil, but the consequences of these changes for soil carbon (C) dynamics are poorly understood. Plant-derived inputs can accumulate in the soil and become part of the soil C pool (“new soil C”), or accelerate losses of pre-existing (“old”) soil C. The dynamics of the new and old pools will likely differ and alter the long-term fate of soil C, but these separate pools, which can be distinguished through isotopic labeling, have not been considered in past syntheses. Using meta-analysis, we found that while elevated CO₂ (ranging from 550 to 800 parts per million by volume) stimulates the accumulation of new soil C in the short term (<1 year), these effects do not persist in the longer term (1–4 years). Elevated CO₂ does not affect the decomposition or the size of the old soil C pool over either temporal scale. Our results are inconsistent with predictions of conventional soil C models and suggest that elevated CO₂ might increase turnover rates of new soil C. Because increased turnover rates of new soil C limit the potential for additional soil C sequestration, the capacity of land ecosystems to slow the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may be smaller than previously assumed.

The recent study by Smith et al. concludes that Earth system models (ESMs) overestimate the effect of CO₂ fertilization on net primary productivity (NPP). Whilst this finding is possible, here we highlight that the satellite derived NPP estimates used are likely to underestimate the CO₂ fertilization effect because they do not account for the primary effect of CO₂ on photosynthesis. In addition, the calculation of NPP sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 is misleading, invalidating the comparison with free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) data.

Plants buffer increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations through enhanced growth, but the question whether nitrogen availability constrains the magnitude of this ecosystem service remains unresolved. Synthesizing experiments from around the world, we show that CO₂ fertilization is best explained by a simple interaction between nitrogen availability and mycorrhizal association. Plant species that associate with ectomycorrhizal fungi show a strong biomass increase (30 ± 3%, P< 0.001) in response to elevated CO₂ regardless of nitrogen availability, whereas low nitrogen availability limits CO₂ fertilization (0 ± 5%, P = 0.946) in plants that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. The incorporation of mycorrhizae in global carbon cycle models is feasible, and crucial if we are to accurately project ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change.